Musk's AI Chips: Speed Demon or Moving Target?

TL;DR: Elon Musk announced Tesla's AI5 chip design is 'almost done,' with ambitious plans for future chips every nine months. This comes six months after he previously stated AI5 was 'finished,' leading to some head-scratching.

Meta: Tesla's AI chip ambitions hit a new gear, but timelines are as wild as a stand-up comedy special.

Alright, folks, settle down, settle down! You know, sometimes following Elon Musk's timelines is like watching a magician. One minute the rabbit's in the hat, the next it's gone, and then he tells you it's almost back. That's kinda how we're feelin' about Tesla's AI chip development right now.

Musk recently dropped a bomb, or maybe just a tweet, declaring that the design for Tesla's AI5 chip is "almost done," and they're already cookin' up AI6. But wait, there's more! He's talkin' about a nine-month design cycle for AI7, AI8, and beyond. Nine months! That's faster than most of us can decide what to have for dinner, let alone design a world-leading semiconductor.

The Great Chip Caper: Almost Done... Again?

Now, here's where it gets a little like deja vu. Just six months ago, Mr. Musk himself proclaimed that the AI5 design was "finished." So, what gives? Did the chip go on a six-month vacation to rethink its life choices, or is 'finished' just a state of mind in the Tesla universe? The semiconductor world usually means 'finished' leads to 'tape-out,' then 'samples,' then a whole lotta 'validation' before 'volume production.' If the design is still "almost done," it makes you wonder what was happening during those "finished" months.

Some reports say Samsung and TSMC are lined up to produce these chips, with plans for different versions at 3nm and 2nm processes. That's serious tech, no doubt. These chips are set to power Tesla's Full Self-Driving system and other AI endeavors, like Optimus. The idea is to create the "highest volume AI chips in the world by far." Now, that's a big claim, but if anyone's gonna go for it, it's Musk.

From Hype to Hardware: The Reality Check

The quick-fire development cycle Musk is touting? That's almost unheard of in the industry. We're talking major architectural overhauls here, not just a software update. Even tech giants like Apple work on multi-year cycles. So, while the ambition is sky-high, the practicalities are still firmly on Earth, where gravity, and physics, tend to apply.

And let's not forget the current FSD situation. With millions of HW3 and HW4 cars still waiting for true unsupervised self-driving, some folks are wondering if the bottleneck is really the hardware, or if the software just needs to catch up to the existing chips. It's like having a rocket ship but still needing to find the keys. High-powered chips are cool, but if the code ain't tight, it's just a fancy paperweight, right?

What’s Next

We'll be watching closely to see how this 'almost done' AI5 chip moves into actual production and if those nine-month cycles for AI6 and beyond become a reality or remain a Silicon Valley dream. The progress on these chips will be critical for Tesla's broader AI ambitions, including their robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robot. Meanwhile, the challenge for Tesla will be to deliver on the promises made to current owners while innovating at breakneck speed.

Alright, that's the word on the street. Stay tuned, because in this game, things change faster than a chameleon on a disco ball. You dig?